Monday, December 31, 2012

Screenwriting Advice From The Past: The Denouement [Part 2] | Go ...

If you are a screenwriter, you should know about Anita Loos. Loos was one of the most influential writers in the early stages of American cinema, associated with 136 film projects per IMDB.

Married to writer John Emerson, the pair wrote one of the first books on screenwriting in 1920: ?How to Write Photoplays?. I have been running a weekly series based on the book. You can access those posts here. Today: The Denouement [P. 90]:

The two important rules in building up to the denouement of your plot are: First, bring the situation to the highest or lowest possible point before you give your story the twist which solves the situation and, second, don?t give your point away beforehand.

The revelation should come instantly to get the effect. Once you have started to tell the secret, tell it in three words, and then hold your action so that the audience is stirred to its depths.

As noted in last week?s post, Loos and Emerson use the term denouement differently than I understand to mean in Hollywood story development circles: Whereas I think of it as the?the scene after the Final Struggle where the script gives the reader a sense of what the Protagonist?s life will be post-journey, in ?How to Write a Photoplay,? the authors state ?it is the moment of revelation when the audience sees the point of the story.? That sounds more like the climax or Final Struggle.

Therefore looking at the advice above tied to a story?s conclusive Plotline point, Emerson and Loos offer some nice takeaways:

* Bring the situation to the highest or lowest possible point before you give your story the twist which solves the situation: If you are dealing with the climax of the story, that naturally calls for it to be an apex. Consider your Final Struggle in that light in terms of its setup and payoff. How big is it? How dramatic? To riff off the advice of Nigel Tufnel from ?Spinal Tap,? does it go to 11, ?one louder??

* Don?t give your point away beforehand: This may seem like a no-brainer, but there is a difference between setting up a conclusive plot point, and giving it away. The Final Struggle should resolve the story in whatever fashion, yet not do so in a way that is obvious by way of what has transpired leading up to it. Otherwise you run the risk of reducing the impact of the story?s resolution because a script reader will have already anticipated the specifics of the events.

* The revelation should come instantly to get the effect: One way to think of Plotline points is they represent an event that happens that goes ?whammo,? a big, exciting occurrence that significantly impacts the plot. Nowhere does this idea have more relevance than the Final Struggle and especially that moment where the conclusion becomes clear. That revelation should almost undoubtedly ?come instantly,? providing a declarative and immediate impact on the characters, and as a result the script readers, a whammo across our consciousness.

* Hold your action so that the audience is stirred to its depths: This is a good reminder to check out screenwriter Michael Arndt?s take on great endings, how they need to work on three levels: External, Internal, Philosophical. Good stories have multiple layers of meaning, that is one big way they create a sense of depth. An ending should [in theory] provide a resolution in the External World [Plotline], Internal World [Themeline], and Philosophical World [or in my language system the psychological realm]. All three and especially the latter speak to a story?s emotional impact. At the end of the day, that is what we want to do: stir a script reader to their ?depths,? make them feel something.

Finally there is this intriguing idea: tell it in three words. If we can create a concentrated iteration of our story in the form of a logline, is there any value in looking at a Final Struggle and articulate its essence in three words? An obvious advantage: The exercise forces us to be extremely clear about what is truly going on with this pivotal Plotline point, the conclusion of the story and its revelation.

Frankly there is so much meat from today?s look at ?How to Write a Photoplay,? it occurs to me the entire point of this month?s long exegesis of the book might be simply to get to this post. Ponder these thoughts and ponder them well. Each is important in terms of crafting a kick-ass story ending.

Next week: More screenwriting advice from 90 years ago.

If you live in the U.S., you can read ?How to Write Photoplays? via Google books online here.

Source: http://gointothestory.blcklst.com/2012/12/screenwriting-advice-from-the-past-the-denouement-part-2.html

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Syria says rebels attack gas pipeline

In this Saturday, Dec. 29, 2012 photo, Free Syrian Army fighters fire at enemy positions during heavy clashes with government forces, in the Salaheddine district in Aleppo, Syria. Activists say Syrian rebels have captured an oil pumping station in the north central province of Raqqa about 160 km east of Aleppo after days of fighting. (AP Photo/Abdullah Al-Yasin)

In this Saturday, Dec. 29, 2012 photo, Free Syrian Army fighters fire at enemy positions during heavy clashes with government forces, in the Salaheddine district in Aleppo, Syria. Activists say Syrian rebels have captured an oil pumping station in the north central province of Raqqa about 160 km east of Aleppo after days of fighting. (AP Photo/Abdullah Al-Yasin)

(AP) ? Syria has blamed rebels for blowing up a natural gas pipeline Monday in the country's oil-rich east, disrupting distribution.

A statement carried by Syria's state news agency blamed a "terrorist group," the regime's description of rebels seeking to topple President Bashar Assad.

The news agency said the blast Monday some 30 kilometers (18 miles) north of Deir el-Zour caused the loss of around 1.5 million cubic meters of gas. It quoted an Oil Ministry official as saying the station fed electricity plants and a fertilizer factory and that engineers were repairing the leak.

Rebels have repeatedly targeted Syria's oil infrastructure in an effort to sap government finances. Last week, they reported seizing the al-Tanak oil field, also in eastern Syria.

In Damascus, Syrian Prime Minister Wael al-Halqi acknowledged the difficulties to the Cabinet on Monday, blaming them on "unfair" international sanctions on Syria and rebel attacks on infrastructure.

"The armed terrorist groups targeted the productive and service institutions and caused huge damage to the national economy and the daily life of the citizens," he said.

Al-Halqi said the government was trying to reopen oil facilities to provide for Syrian's needs.

Anti-regime activists say more than 45,000 people have been killed since the uprising against Assad began in March 2011. Since then, it has evolved into a full-scale civil war with scores of armed groups across the country fighting regime forces.

The war has badly damaged Syria's economy, weakened its currency and led to shortages and price spikes for many basic goods.

Although Russia and China have vetoed efforts to sanction Syria in the U.N. Security Council, the U.S. and European Union have imposed multiple rounds of sanctions on Syria.

The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, an anti-regime activist group, said rebels were clashing with government forces near a number of military bases in the country's north as well as in the central city of Homs and in suburbs southeast of the capital, Damascus.

The group also said 11 rebel fighters were killed in the Damascus suburb of Moadamiyeh, and eight people, including four children and one woman, were killed in government shelling on the al-Marjah area of Aleppo.

Rebels have made gains in recent months, though few expect the war to end soon.

An international plan to end the civil war with a cease-fire and the formation of a transitional government has gone nowhere, mostly because both sides still seek a military victory.

Associated Press

Source: http://hosted2.ap.org/APDEFAULT/cae69a7523db45408eeb2b3a98c0c9c5/Article_2012-12-31-Syria/id-22fc573900354c73a3763ab682629c80

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Google removed more than 50 million links in 2012 search crackdown over piracy claims

Google, the Internet search leader, removed more than 50 million links from search results this year for allegedly infringing the intellectual property of copyright holders.

According to an analysis of Google's weekly "transparency reports" performed by TorrentFreak editor ErnestoVan Der Sar, 51.5 million links to web pages allegedly infringing on copyrighted material were removed from search results in 2012.

"Nearly all of these web pages are no longer showing up in Google's search results," Van Der Sar reported.

Google, like any other website on the Internet, is obliged by federal law -- namely, the Digital Millennium Copyright Act -- to take down content when it receives a DCMA request from a copyright holder.

Van Der Sar noted that DCMA takedown activity has been increasing throughout the year, hitting a high point last week when Google received 3.5 million requests.

Google

Much of that takedown activity is being fueled by automated systems used by large copyright holders. Those systems can be wildly inaccurate, which can lead to lawsuits.

For example, an online storage service called Hotfile sued Warner Bros. Entertainment after that company's automated system flooded Hotfile with thousands of DCMA takedown requests for material Warner had no rights to.

Under the DMCA, any person making bad takedown requests can be penalised with monetary damages. Warner's defence in the Hotfile case is a person didn't make the bogus requests. A computer did.

Media companies, like Warner, are among the most prolific requesters of takedowns.

The biggest requester in 2012, Van Der Sar points out, was the Recording Industry Association of America, which asked Google to remove more than 7.8 million links from its search results.

The website most frequently targeted by rights holders was FilesTube, according to the TorrentFreak editor. More than 2.2 million links at that site allegedly infringed on copyrights, he noted.

"While this is certainly a significant number, it?s less than 1 percent of all FilesTube pages indexed by Google," he wrote.

Copyright holders aren't the only entities pressuring Google to remove links from search results.Governments do so, too. More than half those requests are made for concerns over defamation or privacy and security.

However, governments are interested in more than just taking down links from the Internet. They're also interested in obtaining information from Google that it has about its users. That trend, too, increased over 2012.

Source: http://rss.feedsportal.com/c/570/f/7332/s/270cbd19/l/0L0Smacworld0O0Cdigitallifestyle0Cnews0Cindex0Bcfm0Dnewsid0F34179970Golo0Frss/story01.htm

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Despite looming 'fiscal cliff,' world markets calm

Although 'fiscal cliff' talks go down to the wire, many investors confident a deal will be reached. World markets in Asia, Europe mixed. US stock futures point to a higher open.?

By Pamela Sampson and Pan Pylas,?Associated Press / December 31, 2012

A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in New York Friday. On Dec. 31, 2012, world markets were calm despite delays in finding a 'fiscal cliff' compromise in the US. US stock futures were pointing to a higher open on Wall Street.

Keith Bedford/Reuters

Enlarge

Markets appeared Monday to be taking in stride the prospect that U.S. politicians will fail to agree a budget deal in time to avoid automatic tax increases and spending cuts that many economists think could tilt the world's largest economy back into recession.

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With just hours to go before the U.S. falls off the so-called "fiscal?cliff," Republicans and Democrats remained divided over tax and spend, raising the prospect that markets will start 2013 without a clear idea of America's budget policy. The main sticking point appears to be what level of taxes are imposed on higher incomes.

Discussions in the Senate broke off Sunday night without an agreement. The Senators will return to their offices Monday to try and hammer out a deal before the deadline.

"With the gulf between both parties still wide and the desire to protect their supporters' key interests so ingrained, it is difficult to see how both sides can compromise enough to agree a deal at this point," said Rebecca O'Keeffe, head of investment at Interactive Investor.

However, it's not the first time that budget discussions in the U.S. have gone down to the wire, and investors remain confident that some sort of deal will be reached, if not Monday then in the coming days or weeks. As a result, they think that the potential damage wrought by higher taxes and spending cuts will be limited.

In addition, a backup proposal that would address only a few issues is expected to be presented by Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, a Democrat, if a bipartisan deal is not reached.

The prospect of counter-measures to offset the "fiscal?cliff" impact helps explain why markets were fairly calm in Europe and Asia, and Wall Street was poised to open higher.

In Europe, the FTSE 100 index of leading British shares was down 0.4 percent at 5,901 but the CAC-40 in France was 0.4 percent higher at 3,633. Most European indexes are only trading for half of the day ahead of the New Year break, while others including Germany's DAX were closed.

U.S. stocks were poised for gains at the open, with Dow futures up 0.2 percent and the broader S&P 500 futures 0.4 percent higher, even though in theory, the U.S. faces around $671 billion of tax increases and spending cuts over the coming months, equivalent to the sort of?fiscal?tightening taking place in highly indebted Europe.

Clearly, their full imposition would hobble an economy that has shown some signs of late of a more sustainable economic recovery.

Some economists predict the tax-and-spending effects of the "fiscal?cliff" could eventually throw the U.S. economy back into recession ? although if the deadline passes, politicians still have a few weeks to keep the tax hikes and spending cuts at bay by repealing them retroactively once a deal is reached.

"It is likely that many of the?fiscal?cliff?measures allow a certain amount of room within which the government can introduce measures to refrain from any tax increases," said Joshua Mahony, an analyst at Alpari.

Still, the failure to adhere to the deadline following weeks of squabbling and procrastination could be view negatively by the major credit rating agencies and weigh on investor confidence going into 2013.

"I think the market reaction to that will be very negative. This means the U.S. will never be able to bring its house in order. And the deficit will continue to accumulate," said Francis Lun, managing director of Lyncean Holdings in Hong Kong. "No meaningful reform and no solution in sight. You can throw confidence out of the window."

Earlier in Asia, the picture was fairly subdued in those markets that were open ? among others, markets in Japan and South Korea were closed for the New Year's holidays.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng, trading for a half-day, closed marginally lower at 22,656.92, while mainland Chinese stocks rose after a private survey showed the country's manufacturing growth at its strongest level in 18 months in December. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.5 percent to close at 4,648.90.

There was also a fairly calm atmosphere in other financial markets, with the euro down just 0.2 percent at $1.3191 and the price of benchmark New York crude down 11 cents at $90.69 a barrel.

Source: http://rss.csmonitor.com/~r/feeds/csm/~3/qs4xIKRwfLM/Despite-looming-fiscal-cliff-world-markets-calm

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Saturday, December 29, 2012

MTA app for iPhone offers New Yorkers real-time subway arrivals, a small dose of relief

MTA app for iPhone offers New Yorkers realtime subway arrivals, a small dose of relief

Despite New York City virtually revolving around its mass transit system, local subway riders haven't had a way to check the next arrival in real-time, even though some smaller cities already take live transit details for granted. At least some harried commuters can assuage their minds now that the MTA has posted its Subway Time app for iOS users. The title does exactly what it says on the tin, taking advantage of MTA's signalling installations on the 1 through 6 lines (and the 42nd Street Shuttle) to determine train arrival times down to the minute. Subway Time won't satisfy certain travelers as-is: it doesn't provide directions, and the earliest expansion to additional routes won't happen until the L line's information is linked up in six to 12 months. Passengers running Android and Windows Phone will likewise have to wait for outside developers to finish their own projects. For those of us living in the right areas, however, Subway Time might take away some uncertainty -- even if it's just to confirm that we'll be late.

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Via: Wall Street Journal

Source: App Store

Source: http://feeds.engadget.com/~r/weblogsinc/engadget/~3/xH3TC6DG78E/

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Friday, December 28, 2012

Retail Opportunity Investments Acquires $114M Retail Portfolio ...

Retail Opportunity Investments Corp. (NASDAQ: ROIC) announced today, in an off-market transaction, it has closed on three shopping centers and has a binding contract to acquire a fourth shopping center. The four properties together comprise a portfolio transaction totaling $114 million, encompassing approximately 444,000 square feet of gross leaseable area. The portfolio was previously owned and operated by a Southern California family. The acquisitions are being funded with borrowings under ROIC's unsecured credit facility.

Stuart A. Tanz, President and Chief Executive Officer of Retail Opportunity Investments Corp. stated, "We are excited to be acquiring this exceptional portfolio of Southern California shopping centers.?The properties were not marketed.?We accessed the transaction through a long-standing relationship.?The shopping centers are well-located at major intersections within densely populated communities, which we know extremely well, and are an excellent strategic fit with our current Southern California portfolio.?The four shopping centers represent a balance of stable cash flow, derived from well-established anchor retailers, and numerous value-added growth opportunities."?Mr. Tanz added, "With three of the four properties closed, we have completed a total of $278.0 million of shopping center investments in 2012, surpassing our target for the year.?Looking ahead, we expect

See full press release

Posted in: News, Guidance, Asset Sales, Management, M&A, Global

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Source: http://www.benzinga.com/news/12/12/3203029/retail-opportunity-investments-acquires-114m-retail-portfolio

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Insight: Under siege, Japan central bank wakes up to political reality

TOKYO (Reuters) - Within a day of Shinzo Abe's Liberal Democratic Party sweeping to power in elections this month, elite bureaucrats in Japan's central bank rushed to ready what amounted to a surrender offer.

Abe had run his campaign with a relentless focus on economic policy and had called on the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to take drastic steps to end the nation's long bout of deflation, or else face a radical makeover at the hands of parliament.

The vote had become an unexpected referendum on the BOJ itself, and the bank had lost.

Senior officials concluded that to preserve the BOJ's scope to act in a future crisis, it needed to move quickly to show it recognized reality, according to people familiar with the hurried deliberations. Abe had won a mandate for more forceful monetary easing, and Japanese taxpayers were frustrated with an economy slipping back into its third recession in five years.

In the early afternoon of December 18, two days after the vote, BOJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa was to pay a courtesy call on Abe. But even before then, a post-election plan had taken shape: the BOJ would consider the kind of ambitious 2 percent inflation target that Abe had insisted was needed to pull Japan out of nearly two decades of deflation and diminished expectations.

It was an about-face for Shirakawa who, since taking his post in 2008, had argued that by focusing too narrowly on consumer prices, the BOJ could miss signs of an asset price bubble like the one Japan experienced in the late 1980s.

But increasingly his own senior officials and members of the BOJ's policy-setting board were ready to take risks and test unorthodox and unproven measures that Shirakawa had long resisted, such as an unlimited debt-fuelled monetary expansion, officials familiar with their thinking say.

"The LDP's win was just too big, and it won an election calling for a 2 percent inflation target. If that's the will of the people, the BOJ must respect that," said a source familiar with the central bank's thinking. "Otherwise, the BOJ could lose everything, including its independence."

The central bank is now on track to pump 120 trillion yen ($1.4 trillion) into the economy - equivalent to the value of six Googles - even though skeptics argue that this tide of money cannot break Japan's real economic logjam: falling wages.

Instead, the skeptics say, the risk is that investors would end up concluding that Japan needed the central bank to cover its debts - a recipe for a selloff of government bonds, which already amount to twice the size of gross domestic product.

But after Abe's landslide election victory - and years of limited money-printing having failed to revive growth - senior BOJ officials wanted it understood they were ready to join the experiment in what media and investors called "Abenomics", a potentially high-octane mix of fiscal and monetary stimulus.

Abe's victory seemed to establish that millions of Japanese shared his views, people in the bank came to believe.

They felt he now held the trump card in any future standoff with the BOJ over monetary policy - a mandate to amend the BOJ Law in a way that would give the government power to impose a binding target on the central bank, or fire its governor.

BLIND EYE

In a symbol of the political significance of his monetary policy push, Abe scheduled a one-on-one meeting with Shirakawa just hours after setting up a first phone call as prime-minister-elect with the U.S. President Barack Obama.

Two days after the election, the central bank governor visited Abe at the fortress-like headquarters of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Abe reminded Shirakawa of his campaign promises. He wanted to see the BOJ sign a "policy accord" that would oblige it to support Abe's reflationary agenda and commit to a 2 percent inflation target, Abe told reporters later.

After the meeting, Shirakawa rushed through a scrum of reporters into his waiting car and declined to say what was discussed. However Abe, in another break with protocol, gave an unusually detailed recounting of the 15-minute meeting.

"The governor just listened," he said.

The next day, the BOJ began a scheduled two-day policy board meeting. The central bank announced its third shot of monetary stimulus in four months by adding another 10 trillion yen to its asset-buying program - essentially committing to create more money to buy government debt.

It marked the fifth time this year that the central bank had expanded asset purchases - its most active year in terms of monetary expansion in a decade.

More significantly, the BOJ also made a direct concession to Abe and pledged to review its existing inflation target of 1 percent at its next scheduled meeting in January.

The BOJ was retreating from the cautious stance of its classically trained boss, Shirakawa, and essentially turning a blind eye to the potential, long-term drawbacks of excessive money printing that he had long warned about.

Only a month earlier, many BOJ officials had preferred to hold off on taking action until the January meeting, according to sources familiar with the deliberations.

Shirakawa, in particular, had been in no mood to act again in 2012, let alone commit to studying a higher inflation target. He had been convinced that the BOJ's monetary easing steps in September and October were enough to stave off risks to the economy for now, the sources said.

LONG & WINDING ROAD

Shirakawa's five-year term ends in April and people close to him say he has no interest in staying on. But decisions taken under his watch over the next few months could influence the central bank's credibility well beyond his departure.

A fan of the Beatles, Shirakawa, 63, has often warned against the risk of an overly loose monetary policy.

He once described Japan's struggle to recover from its late 1980s asset bubble as "The Long And Winding Road", a reference to the plaintive Beatles song. He said rich economies risked repeating Japan's "lost decade" of slow growth if they kept ultra-easy monetary policy in place for too long.

But for the past year, a tight-knit group of officials in the BOJ's Monetary Affairs Department has been nudging the bank in the opposite direction. They favor more aggressive easing, such as a big increase in government bond buying, according to officials with knowledge of those discussions and former central bank officials who remain in close contact with policymakers.

Among the actions now under consideration at the BOJ is an open-ended commitment to buy government bonds or an expansion in the type of assets it purchases, the officials said.

Another idea, floated by board member Koji Ishida, is to nudge rates to zero by scrapping a 0.1 percent interest rate the BOJ pays on excess reserves parked with the central bank.

Proponents argue that such steps would hold down interest rates on bank and corporate borrowing, encourage money to flow to private investors and help weaken the yen.

Anticipation of BOJ action has already pushed the yen to a two-year low against the dollar. Tokyo stock prices have climbed to a 21-month high on the expectation for higher earnings for currency-sensitive exporters like automaker Toyota Motor Corp.

"Markets already expect the BOJ to set a 2 percent inflation target, so the question now is what the central bank would do to achieve it," said Masaaki Kanno, a former central banker and now chief economist at JPMorgan Securities in Tokyo.

"If it wants to influence currency rates, it needs to give markets the impression it is easing aggressively."

Abe has said he will choose a successor to Shirakawa whose views are closer to his own. He has not made up his mind yet on his favored candidate but aides say he may prefer someone with negotiation and management skills, rather than an academic, to oversee the BOJ as it pushes into unknown territory.

PRESSURE REMAINS ON

With the LDP's coalition partner, the New Komeito, Abe has enough votes in the lower house to overrule the upper house on key votes, including a potential revision of the 1998 BOJ Law that gave the 130-year-old bank its long-awaited independence.

Under this law, the central bank is guaranteed independence to guide monetary policy without political interference and is mandated to pursue price stability. Abe has discussed a law revision to impose a price target on the central bank and add a requirement to maximize job growth to its mandate.

Abe is already using threats of a BOJ Law revision to nudge the central bank into meeting his demands.

Koichi Hamada, a Yale University professor whom Abe admires, said the BOJ would have to accept more legal accountability to achieve its price target and beat deflation.

"Generally speaking, the BOJ is making an effort. But there is hardly any change to its pace of 'too little, too late'," said Hamada, 76, who was appointed a special adviser to Abe's cabinet and also taught Shirakawa at the University of Tokyo.

"It is necessary to amend the BOJ law," he said in a telephone interview on Thursday.

'A TOUGH SPOT'

One challenge now for the BOJ is setting a higher inflation target that is seen as credible. In February, the BOJ said that it would aim to achieve 1 percent price growth.

But Shirakawa, who joined the BOJ during Japan's high inflation years of the early 1970s, and many other officials in the bank have resisted calls for a higher target. For one, Japan has not seen 2 percent inflation in the past two decades. The last time it did was during the real estate and stock market bubble of the late 1980s to early 1990s, when the BOJ was criticized for missing signs of an overheating economy.

Some officials share Shirakawa's doubts over whether further monetary easing will work. Two key metrics - the BOJ's holdings of government debt and the balance of deposits parked with the central bank - are already at record highs, yet the BOJ's pump-priming measures have failed to put an end to deflation.

Nationwide core consumer prices slid 0.1 percent in November from a year earlier after flat growth in October, which followed five straight month of declines.

Another concern for the cautionary wing of the BOJ centers on the unusual structure of Japan's economy. Japan's jobless rate - at 4 percent - is half that of the United States. But wages remain on the decline, down 1.1 percent in November from a year earlier to mark the third straight month of falls.

Unable to fire workers in mass layoffs because of rigid labour rules, Japanese firms are unwilling to raise salaries. Without a rise in wages, the only practical way overall prices could go up would be through higher commodity and fuel costs which would curb consumption, not boost it, the BOJ has argued.

Setting a 2 percent inflation target next month would require the BOJ to awkwardly steer around the arguments that Shirakawa and other officials have long made.

"If the BOJ contradicts too much of what it's been saying all along, that would put its credibility on the line. People will no longer believe what the BOJ says anymore," said Izuru Kato, chief economist at Totan Research Institute in Tokyo.

The BOJ also worries about a potential bond-market backlash. Its ultra-easy policy has pushed down five-year bond yields below 0.2 percent. But some investors balk at buying too many 20-year and 30-year bonds, concerned that Abe's pledge of big fiscal spending would strain Japan's already worsening finances.

Much will depend on Shirakawa's successor and how well the central bank communicates its policy target to investors - an area where Shirakawa has struggled by his own admission.

After the December 20 easing, his aides convinced him to try the kind of visual aid often used on Japanese television - a large flip chart - and to aim his presentation at the TV cameras. An economist suspicious of sound bites, he looked uncomfortable.

"The BOJ is pumping huge amounts of money and easing very aggressively. But that fact isn't understood well perhaps because of our restrained character. There's a huge perception gap," Shirakawa said.

"I hope this chart is broadcast on television and helps more people understand our point," he added.

($1 = 85.9250 Japanese yen)

(Additional reporting by Sumio Ito and Yoshifumi Takemoto; Editing by Kevin Krolicki and Mark Bendeich)

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/insight-under-siege-japan-central-bank-wakes-political-084520566--business.html

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'Django Unchained': Jonah Hill's Cameo Explained

Director Quentin Tarantino shifted the film's production dates to accommodate Hill's busy schedule.
By Kevin P. Sullivan, with reporting by Josh Horowitz


Jonah Hill in "Django Unchained"
Photo: The Weinstein Company

Source: http://www.mtv.com/news/articles/1699456/django-unchained-johah-hill-cameo.jhtml

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Thursday, December 27, 2012

Recall of More Hydrocodone-Acetaminophen Tablets

Dec. 26, 2012 -- More lots of the combination painkiller hydrocodone-acetaminophen are being recalled by Mylan Institutional. The new alert follows a nationwide recall of 101 lots of the drugs issued by Qualitest Pharmaceuticals that occurred earlier this month.

The FDA says the newly recalled lots were manufactured by Qualitest Pharmaceuticals and were repackaged and distributed by Mylan Institutional.?The three lots include: ?

The recalled bottles are supposed to contain tablets made up of 10 milligrams of hydrocodone and 500 milligrams of acetaminophen. But they are being recalled because the tablets may contain higher amounts of acetaminophen or hydrocodone than indicated on the label.

High doses of acetaminophen may put you at increased risk for liver damage.

Especially at risk are people who:

  • Take other medications containing acetaminophen
  • Have liver disease
  • Drink more than three alcoholic beverages a day

Additionally, too-high doses of hydrocodone can cause increased sedation and/or breathing problems, particularly among the elderly, people with severe kidney or liver impairment, and those who are taking other sedating medications or certain antidepressants.

If you have the affected lots you can contact Mylan Customer Service at 800-848-0462. People who are unsure should call their pharmacist or doctor.

Source: http://www.webmd.com/pain-management/news/20121226/recall-expansion-hydrocodone-acetaminophen

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Your Nostalgic Refreshment - ArticlesWide.com

Traveling back to the 1930's, when home refrigerators were rare and today's electronic kitchen gadgets didn't exist. Ice was sold to homes and businesses in blocks of varying size. Now, thanks to the advent of a higher level of technology you have a variety of latest machines right at your reach or available online.

Okay, coming to the prime topic can you let me know who can resist an icy, frosty cold beverage on a hot day? The snow cone is a popular summer treat that consists of a shaved or crushed ice that is served in a paper cylindrical cone and then topped with flavored sugar syrup. Who doesn't just love snow cones? And this particularly holds true during the warmer summer months of the year. Now, thanks to the advent of a higher level of technology, now you can buy modern and easy to use snow cone machines that easily fit right on your kitchen counters. However; various snow cone machines are available on the market at a reasonable price.

Snow cone machines are not to be confused with Ice shaver machines. The difference is in the texture of the processed ice that the two types of machines produce. While shaved ice tends to be fluffy and snow like, the ice produced by a snow cone machine is more granular in texture.

When it comes to a Shaved Ice Maker, you have seen that there is something for both the home user and the commercial user. You can shop for the models that best fit your needs and budget. With the holidays around the corner this is the time to shop. There will be many discounts hitting the market in anticipation of the holiday crowds.With a small to medium size investment for a shaved ice machine and a few popular flavors, you can expand your business and the machine you purchased could end up paying for itself many times over.

Now that the block and shaver have been found, the last, and very important ingredient needed is the flavored syrup. The most popular flavors have been cherry, chocolate, and root beer. The best syrup is one with a good body, real taste and excellent spreading capability throughout the icy snack-time treat.

For more information about Ice Shaver, Snow cone machines residential needs then I highly recommend you to visit at Ice Shaver or visit at www.iceandwine.com

Source: http://www.articleswide.com/article/12167-Your_Nostalgic_Refreshment.html

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Source: http://forums.ferra.ru/index.php?showtopic=53704

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Wednesday, December 26, 2012

Partial list of taxes and fees in health overhaul

Starting in 2014, President Barack Obama's health care law will expand coverage to some 30 million uninsured people. At the same time, insurers no longer will be allowed to turn away those in poor health, and virtually every American will be required to have health insurance ? through an employer or a government program or by buying it on their own.

For the vast majority of people, the health care law won't mean sending more money to the Internal Revenue Service. But the wealthiest 2 percent of Americans will take the biggest hit, starting next year.

And roughly 20 million people eventually will benefit from tax credits that start in 2014 to help them pay insurance premiums.

A look at some of the major taxes and fees, estimated to raise nearly $700 billion over 10 years.

? Upper-income households. Starting Jan. 1, individuals making more than $200,000 per year, and couples making more than $250,000, will face a 0.9 percent Medicare tax increase on wages above those threshold amounts. They'll also face an additional 3.8 percent tax on investment income. Together these are the biggest tax increase in the health care law.

? Employer penalties. Starting in 2014, companies with 50 or more employees that do not offer coverage will face penalties if at least one of their employees receives government-subsidized coverage. The penalty is $2,000 per employee, but a company's first 30 workers don't count toward the total.

? Health care industries. Insurers, drug companies and medical device manufacturers face new fees and taxes. Companies that make medical equipment sold chiefly through doctors and hospitals, such as pacemakers, artificial hips and coronary stents, will pay a 2.3 percent excise tax on their sales, expected to total $1.7 billion in its first year, 2013. They're trying to get it repealed.

The insurance industry faces an annual fee that starts at $8 billion in its first year, 2014.

Pharmaceutical companies that make or import brand-name drugs are already paying fees; they totaled $2.5 billion in 2011, the first year.

? People who don't get health insurance. Nearly 6 million people who don't get health insurance will face tax penalties starting in 2014. The fines are estimated to raise $6.9 billion in 2016. Average penalty in that year: about $1,200.

? Indoor tanning devotees. The 10 percent sales tax on indoor tanning sessions took effect in 2010. It's expected to raise $1.5 billion over 10 years.

The 28 million people who visit tanning booths and beds each year ? mostly women under 30, according to the Journal of the American Academy of Dermatology ? are already paying. Tanning salons were singled out because of strong medical evidence that exposure to ultraviolet lights increases the risk of skin cancer.

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/partial-list-taxes-fees-health-overhaul-230948824.html

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Hopping Rockets Reach New Heights

A good year for SpaceX is coming to a close with another impressive achievement. Today Elon Musk's private space firm announced new progress with Grasshopper, its attempt to build a reusable rocket. Earlier this week the Grasshopper rocket blasted off, hovered in the air at an altitude of about 12 stories, and returned to the launch pad after a 29-second flight.

Why do we care? If empty rocket boosters can fly back home and land, it will make rocket launches much cheaper. That in turn could open up space for more uses, for scientists and tourists alike. As PopMech has reported, reusability is one of Musk's main areas of focus for bring down the cost of each launch.

Other companies are likely working on similar systems; the secretive Blue Origin has patented a rocket that could land on a ship deck. So we'll have to see who, if anyone, gets there first.

Source: http://www.popularmechanics.com/how-to/blog/hopping-rockets-reach-new-heights-14904663?src=rss

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Anne Dilenschneider: The Innkeeper Is the Hero

Once, there was a little boy who was so excited one Sunday after practice for the church Christmas play that he practically jumped into the minivan when his mother came to pick him up. When he finally settled into the back seat, his mom called back to him, "So what part did you get that's making you so excited?"

The boy could hardly contain himself. "I got the part of the hero!"

"The hero?" she asked. "Are you Joseph?"

"Nooooo, Mom!" The look he shot her made it clear that he thought she was truly clueless.

"Are you the lead shepherd just like last year?"

"Nooooo, Mom!" She really didn't get it.

"Are you going to be a king and wear a crown this year?"

"No Mom! It's better than that!"

"The Angel Gabriel?"

"NO!"

"Tell me you're not baby Jesus!"

"Aw, Mom. I told you I'm the hero of the whole show."

"Well, who are you?"

"I'm the innkeeper!" the boy announced, grinning from ear to ear. "Without the innkeeper, there wouldn't have been any place for Jesus to be born!"

This is my favorite Christmas story because, until I heard it, I had never thought about the innkeeper. The innkeeper isn't part of most Nativity sets. I haven't heard any carols about the innkeeper. There don't seem to be any paintings that include him, either.

I can imagine the scene: Bethlehem is crowded with people coming home for the census. Rooms have been booked for months. It's late at night when the innkeeper opens the door and finds a young couple standing in front of him. The woman is nine months pregnant, and she and her husband look exhausted. They've walked 100 miles from Nazareth over rough and rocky terrain to get here.

The innkeeper is confronted with a dilemma.

As a child, he learned the story of Abraham and Sarah. He knows that couple welcomed the 3 strangers who showed up at their house by slaughtering the fatted calf and offering their guests a lavish feast. Then it turns out that the guests are angels sent to bring great news: As impossible as it seems, Sarah is going to have a baby. And so now there is a tradition of entertaining strangers, because often they are messengers to us from God.

The innkeeper also knows Moses' admonition in the Torah, reminding the people of Israel that they are called to love the stranger as themselves, because they remember what it was like to be strangers in Egypt.

He knows the tradition of having an empty chair at the table ready to welcome the one who comes as a stranger, as Elijah, at the great Pesach feast.

Now there are strangers on his doorstep. What to do?

I can imagine him pulling the door to a bit, and hastily consulting with his wife. Is there any space, anywhere? There are three people in each bed, and people sleeping on all the couches. There are air mattresses covering the living room and dining room and bedroom floors. What to do? They whisper back and forth, racking their brains, trying to come up with a solution.

Suddenly, he thinks of the stable out back. It's not much, but it's protected from the wind. The body heat of the animals makes it a warm place, no matter how cold it gets outside.

He flings open the door, and welcomes the couple with a broad smile. He explains he doesn't have much, but he has a possibility. A stable. Will it suffice?

It does.

And the innkeeper saves the day.

As it turns out, this is not the only inn and innkeeper in the Gospel of Luke.

The central story of that Gospel is a story we know as the story of the good Samaritan. In that story, Jesus tells us that a man is robbed on the road to Jericho. The good Samaritan comes along, bandages the man, and then brings him to ... an inn and an innkeeper.

The good Samaritan gets all the press for his efforts. Yet who is the one who cares for the wounded man day after day? Who changes the bandages and the sheets? Who feeds him every day? Who does this, not knowing whether he or she will actually be paid for this work or not? The innkeeper!

The innkeeper is the hero or shero of that story, too.

Then, at the end of Luke's Gospel, there is another story about an inn.

A couple is walking along the road to Emmaus. A stranger joins them. The three of them talk as they travel together. The couple shares their disappointment that Jesus is dead. It's very clear their hopes for the future are dashed.

The travelers come to an inn. The couple turns to enter the door. And, Luke tells us, "the stranger makes as if to go on."

There is a long, pregnant pause. The couple has to make a decision. Did they understand what Jesus had been teaching them during the three years they'd followed him? This is a test. The couple is standing on the doorstep. The stranger is beginning to walk away. They look at each other.

The silence is broken when the couple suddenly calls out, each one's words tripping over the other's. They invite the stranger to stay with them. They insist he join them, and share their reservation at the inn. The stranger turns toward them, and agrees. But first, they must have dinner. And as they are eating together, the couple discovers through the stranger, through their guest, that Christ is with them. It is a Christmas moment, all over again. Here is Emmanuel, God With Us!

* * *

This winter, in Fargo-Moorhead, there are over 500 homeless households. The overflow is so great that, for the second year in a row, a number of churches are housing the homeless people who do not have beds in the local shelters. It's literally a matter of life or death here. People can, and sometimes do, die on our streets in our subzero winter weather.

This year, once again, First United Methodist Church in Fargo volunteered to be one of the primary sheltering sites. That church was asked to take the unprecedented step of serving as a shelter for two or, possibly, three weeks. As soon as the dates were set, the members of First Church were quickly joined by the members of Edgewood United Methodist Church.

Because the Edgewood congregation worships in the First Church chapel, the room that serves as the primary guest bedroom at the church, the members of Edgewood decorated the chapel with lit Christmas trees and wreaths. They wanted the guests to have an experience of safety and beauty and delight as they rested in that room lit by Christmas lights each evening. At the same time, the First Church team came up with a floor plan that provided privacy for each guest, a priceless commodity for anyone homeless.

The guests were at First Church for two weeks. Many more than 80 volunteers from both congregations provided welcoming, registration, snacks, toiletries, overnight care, cleaning, and re-arranging.

It was a bit like having extra guests at home. There were beds everywhere, and extra places at the table. Many of the guests were young adults. One was a woman who was nine months pregnant. Most were working. One young man worked until 3 a.m. cleaning up the Fargo Dome after a big football game, and then had to walk the four miles to the church. A warm welcome, snacks and bed were waiting for him when he arrived.

Why did the people of First United Methodist Church and Edgewood United Methodist Church do this? Why did we open our hearts, and our minds, and our doors to complete strangers?

It's simple. Jesus made it very clear that he comes among us in many forms. As the person who is hungry or thirsty. As the person who needs a warm coat or gloves. As the sick person who needs comfort. As the person in jail who needs to be visited. As the stranger who needs welcoming and a place to stay.

Being innkeepers for our homeless guests this Advent has been good practice for living into our daily, all-year-long call to serve Jesus. It has allowed each one of us to grow in faith as we serve as Christ's hands, and feet, and open heart. As innkeepers, we have helped each other learn how to welcome Emmanuel, God With Us, right here in our home community.

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Source: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/anne-dilenschneider/the-innkeeper-is-the-hero_b_2362650.html

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Nearly one in three children with food allergies experience bullying, survey shows

Dec. 24, 2012 ? Nearly a third of children diagnosed with food allergies who participated in a recent study are bullied, according to researchers at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai. Almost eight percent of children in the U.S. are allergic to foods such as peanuts, tree-nuts, milk, eggs, and shellfish.

Nearly half of parents surveyed (47.9 percent) were not aware of the bullying -- although both the bullied children and their parents reported experiencing higher stress levels and lower quality of life.

The study, titled, "Child and Parental Reports of Bullying in a Consecutive Sample of Children with Food Allergy," appears Dec. 24 in the online issue of Pediatrics. The study was led by Eyal Shemesh, MD, Associate Professor of Pediatrics and Psychiatry at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai. Dr. Shemesh and his team surveyed 251 pairs of parents and children. The patient and parent pairs were consecutively recruited during allergy clinic visits to independently answer questionnaires. Bullying due to food allergy or for any cause, quality of life, and distress in both the child and parent were evaluated using validated questionnaires.

"Parents and pediatricians should routinely ask children with food allergy about bullying," said Dr. Shemesh. "Finding out about the child's experience might allow targeted interventions, and would be expected to reduce additional stress and improve quality of life for these children trying to manage their food allergies." Dr. Shemesh is Director of EMPOWER (Enhancing, Managing, and Promoting Well-being and Resiliency), a program within Mount Sinai's Jaffe Food Allergy Institute. Dr. Shemesh is also Chief of the Division of Behavioral and Developmental Health in the Department of Pediatrics at The Mount Sinai Medical Center.

"When parents are aware of the bullying, the child's quality of life is better," said the senior author, Scott H. Sicherer, MD, Professor of Pediatrics, Chief, Division of Pediatric Allergy, Co-Director, EMPOWER program. "Our results should raise awareness for parents, school personnel, and physicians to proactively identify and address bullying in this population."

The work for the study was supported by the EMPOWER program, a program funded by a generous donation from the Jaffe Family Foundation, that is devoted to understanding and enhancing the quality of life of persons with food allergy.

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Story Source:

The above story is reprinted from materials provided by Mount Sinai Medical Center.

Note: Materials may be edited for content and length. For further information, please contact the source cited above.


Journal Reference:

  1. Eyal Shemesh, Rachel A. Annunziato, Michael A. Ambrose, Noga L. Ravid, Chloe Mullarkey, Melissa Rubes, Kelley Chuang, Mati Sicherer, Scott H. Sicherer. Child and Parental Reports of Bullying in a Consecutive Sample of Children With Food Allergy. Pediatrics, 2012; [link]

Note: If no author is given, the source is cited instead.

Disclaimer: This article is not intended to provide medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. Views expressed here do not necessarily reflect those of ScienceDaily or its staff.

Source: http://feeds.sciencedaily.com/~r/sciencedaily/living_well/~3/vqc52p-qWxc/121224113346.htm

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President Obama may return to Washington as soon as Wednesday: aide (reuters)

Share With Friends: Share on FacebookTweet ThisPost to Google-BuzzSend on GmailPost to Linked-InSubscribe to This Feed | Rss To Twitter | Politics - Top Stories News, News Feeds and News via Feedzilla.

Source: http://news.feedzilla.com/en_us/stories/politics/top-stories/273090595?client_source=feed&format=rss

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Tuesday, December 25, 2012

johncarrickxy: victorrusso23: Shopping And Product Reviews: Toys ...

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U.S. Navy SEAL commander dies in Afghanistan

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The commander of an elite U.S. Navy SEAL unit has died in Afghanistan, the Defence Department said on Sunday, and a U.S. military official said his death was being investigated as a suspected suicide.

Commander Job Price, 42, of Pottstown, Pennsylvania, died on Saturday of a non-combat related injury in central Afghanistan's Uruzgan Province, the Pentagon said in a statement.

"This incident is currently under investigation," it said.

Price, was assigned to a Naval Special Warfare unit in Virginia Beach, Virginia, and was the commanding officer of SEAL Team Four. He failed to show up for an event on Saturday and colleagues found him dead in his quarters, the U.S. military official told Reuters on condition of anonymity.

NBC News and CNN also quoted unnamed military officials as saying that the death was being looked at as a possible suicide.

Lieutenant David Lloyd, a spokesman for Naval Special Warfare Group Two, which comprises the four SEAL teams on the U.S. East Coast, declined to comment on the cause of death, saying it was under investigation.

Price was married and had a daughter. He had been a naval officer since May 1993, Lloyd said.

Captain Robert Smith, the Group Two commander, said in a statement: "The Naval Special Warfare family is deeply saddened by the loss of our teammate. We extend our condolences, thoughts and prayers to the family, friends, and NSW community during this time of grieving.

"As we mourn the loss and honour the memory of our fallen teammate, those he served with will continue to carry out the mission."

SEAL is an acronym for sea, air, land.

(Reporting by Ian Simpson and Phil Stewart; editing by Christopher Wilson)

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/u-navy-seal-dead-afghanistan-reported-suicide-011143310.html

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Monday, December 24, 2012

Swedish princess to marry next June

STOCKHOLM (AP) ? Sweden's royal family says Princess Madeleine's wedding will take place on Saturday, June 8, at the Royal Palace chapel in downtown Stockholm.

King Carl XVI Gustaf and Queen Silvia's youngest daughter was engaged to U.S.-British boyfriend Christopher O'Neill, a 38-year-old New York banker, in late October. The 30-year-old Madeleine is fourth in line to the Swedish throne.

The royal family's chief spokesman Bertil Tenert said Sunday that wedding organizers will now start planning details of the nuptials. He added that Madeleine's wedding will be smaller than Crown Princess Victoria's wedding two years ago in Stockholm.

The Swedish royal family has only ceremonial duties, such as supporting charities and promoting Swedish businesses.

Associated Press

Source: http://hosted2.ap.org/APDEFAULT/4e67281c3f754d0696fbfdee0f3f1469/Article_2012-12-23-Sweden-Princess%20Madeleine/id-c089bc619553470097721cf52060e6d3

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Top 5 Apps for Kids This Week

On Sunday morning, Wayne LaPierre, CEO of the National Rifle Association, told the world that armed guards stopped school shootings in Israel. Israel begs to differ. "Israel had a whole lot of school shootings until they did one thing," LaPierre said sitting calmly on Meet the Press. "They said, 'We're going to stop it,' and they put armed security in every school, and they have not had a problem since then."

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/top-5-apps-kids-week-143755378.html

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These Skull-Thumping Headphones Are Literally For the Birds

A lot of us put ear buds in our ears, but that's about as intrusive as mainstream headphone-wearing gets for us humans. This pair of bird headphones is a bit different. Epoxied to this little guy's skull, this set of special headphones is blasting some off-key tunes so scientist can learn how bird auto-tune works. More »


Source: http://feeds.gawker.com/~r/gizmodo/full/~3/ejejT8hENkk/these-skull+thumping-headphones-are-literally-for-the-birds

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Sunday, December 23, 2012

Instant Tranquility ? NLP Hypnosis to Relax ... - Self Help Heaven ...

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Selamat Datang ke MPK2053 Current Issues in TVE : CRITICLE ...

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AHMAD SASHWANI BIN AZMI

MP111480

Critical Review

An article review of Yunfei? Chong ,2011.? ? The Research on how Chinese vocational education break through the current bottleneck of its development , Concurrent discussion on how to establish the mechanism of school enterprise cooperation in Chinese vocational education?. ????Zhengzhou Railway Vocational and Technical College

This article focuses on ?how to develop Chinese Vocational Education by establish the mechanism of school-enterprise cooperation . The authors have stressed the cooperation between schools and enterprises that appear to have a problem in creating a program of bilateral cooperation which respectively provide help to achieve a common goal or a win-win due to? the failure of the government to encourage partnerships between schools and enterprises.; government-lead ?. The author aims to highlight the collaboration between industry and academia like ?Dual System?? vocational education models in Germany that provide job internship ,one of the reason for difficulty of school-enterprises cooperation; administrative subordination;. Yunfei mentions that perhaps almost vocational colleges perfom actively, but it not accompany with enterprise or industry that did not contact the colleges forwardly.

This article is significant given that the difficulties of school-enterprise cooperation is lack of talent training as well as evaluated by educational expert. ?However as a result of somewhat abstract implications, the article would perhaps only be of interest on ?co-sponsorship mechanism and policy guarantee especially on government-lead.? The authors have used ?vocational education models to describe the government- lead in developing countries like ;Amerika, England, Germany and Japan; and to compare the efficient model of personnel training.Although showing differences in ??implementation but strives to achieve the common goal of providing provisions to ensure the training is going well.The author mention it provides good reference to strengthen the government ?lead, strengthen the legislation of vocational education, strengthen the overall plan and supervise, and establish the cooperation mechanism.

The author has started writing specifying keywords should be known and so began a discussion on the topic. The author have a very good in processing due to problems in school-enterprise Cooperation is more specific that can identify the cause of how the occurrence constraints to progress chinese vocational education. The topic has an objective to be achive.The author has made a claims that government-lead is the only way to break through the current bottleneck of vocational education development but ?an evidence was provided is not reliable. The conclusion also are drawn just a simple word and not complement. The principal of the text can be better organized

As a conclusion it can be said that the author has managed to transfer information on how to solve the bottleneck problem as experienced by chinese vocational education which should strengthen the school-enterprise cooperation.? To the success of this cooperation must be the government in terms of provision of assistance and reform The author seems to only look to the government-lead, although the schools are supposed to provide entrepreneurship education as recommended by Robert Kowasaki in her book, rich dad, poor dad where he suggested that education for entrepreneurship have since translated children from school. Similarly, vocational education should start at school with teachers who are trained as discussed by Qiu Feiyue and Lifang Le (2010). Quality education will produce a quality student . I am? agree with Malaysia system vocational school that was up grade to be a college and develop the teachers skill.

Source: http://citve1213.blogspot.com/2012/12/criticle-review-1-ahmad-sashwani-azmi.html

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Rohit Savant Expects the Gold Bull Market to Pause in 2013

The Gold Report: Rohit, in a recent interview you said gold is "not a guaranteed safe haven." In your view, what are effective ways to preserve capital?

Rohit Savant: If you're talking about preserving capital, it depends a great extent on your timeframe and your risk appetite.

"When the fiscal cliff debate intensifies as we get closer to the deadline, we may see the gold price rise in response."

If you're looking at the short term and want no fluctuations in your principal, the best way to preserve it would be either certificates of deposit or T-bills and hope that inflation doesn't rise significantly.

But if you are looking at the longer term and are willing to take some ups and downs in your capital, a better way of preserving or increasing your capital would be investments in equities, real estate and gold. You could reduce the risk a bit by purchasing dividend-paying equities.

TGR: Do you believe gold is an effective way to preserve capital?

RS: Over the long term, it is. In the short term, you are going to see fluctuations in prices.

TGR: What range do you expect gold to trade in through the first half of 2013?

RS: We expect it to stay more or less in the same range that it did this year, probably between $1,550-1,800/ounce (oz) for the first half of 2013.

TGR: Are you seeing a similar path for silver?

RS: In the case of silver, we have a more bearish view. One reason is that silver prices are going to be negatively affected by increases in supply. Today silver prices are significantly higher than the average cash cost for producing silver. So we expect that a lot of fresh supply will come onstream.

Another reason is expected lower investor interest. Silver tends to be more volatile than gold, so you might see sharper declines in prices with lower investment demand.

TGR: Does that mean you prefer gold to silver right now?

RS: At this point, we definitely see gold as a better investment than silver. We don't expect any significant increases in gold prices, but we don't think that gold prices will decline substantially from where they've been this year.

TGR: Is there a possibility that 2013 will be the first year in the last 12 when the gold price finishes the year lower than when it started?

RS: Yes, it will likely be the first year to end in a lower price in over a decade.

TGR: If you met a goldbug who is unabashedly bullish on the gold price and he challenged your price position on gold, how would you respond to that person?

RS: We face this situation quite often because our view on gold has not been as bullish as a lot of other market participants. Our response to them is that we think a lot of the factors that are being cited as reasons for gold prices going up are already factored into the price of gold.

"Central banks have been doing pretty much what we expect private investors to do, which is wait for gold prices to soften before they step in as buyers."

For instance, there are a lot of problems with the global economy. We're not denying that. We are just saying that these are problems that have been known now for several years and have already been factored into the price of gold. So gold prices won't skyrocket. But on the other hand, the global problems are a reason we think that gold prices will not decline sharply either.

TGR: In early December, we saw commodities including gold and silver sold off in response to concerns regarding America's "fiscal cliff." In your view, what are the three biggest downside risks to gold right now?

RS: The biggest risk to gold would be that investors lose interest. But we don't think that investors will lose interest, central banks will stop buying gold, or there will be a sudden increase in the supply of gold. These could all be potential downside risks. That said, we do not expect that any of these risks will materialize in 2013 or the near future.

The biggest risk for us is not so much that prices would go down, but that they won't rise substantially. We don't see a sharp decline in gold prices going forward. We don't see gold going up much. We see a sideways to potentially slightly lower range, but nothing significant.

TGR: What about the fiscal cliff itself? Is that a concern for the gold price?

RS: When the fiscal cliff debate intensifies as we get closer to the deadline, we may see the gold price rise in response. So the fiscal cliff could be positive for gold prices during December. I think the slight softness that we're seeing in gold prices recently is really the marketinvestors holding off to see if prices could decline further. Gold could potentially go down to around $1,680/oz and get some support at that level. Then you might see some investors coming back, buying gold in response to the fiscal cliff issue. Once in 2013, whatever the outcome of the fiscal cliff, it would result in softening of economic growth, which would weigh on gold prices during the first half of next year.

TGR: The World Gold Council (WGC) reports that the Indian market is showing signs of recovery in gold demand, up 9% to 223.1 tons from 204.8 tons in the third quarter of 2011. The WGC press release reads, "Indians appear to have acclimatized to recent price trends and have been buying into a rising market." What's behind that change in sentiment and do you believe it's likely to continue in 2013?

RS: The buying of gold for Indians is very deeply engrained in the culture. When a festival is coming up, or if it is marriage season, Indians are going to buy gold. It's highly unlikely that they would refrain from buying gold because of higher gold prices.

TGR: But they have cut back purchases in the past.

RS: The increase in demand in the third quarter, in a rising price environment, may have occurred because of pent-up demand. Demand from the first half of the year had been cut back by various factors.

Indians may buy a smaller amount of gold per person if the price goes up. But they're not likely to stop buying gold just because the price has increased. The demand is going to be there.

TGR: China is another culture where gold is much more prevalent in the lives of people than it is in the West. The Wall Street Journal reported this week that China, for the first time ever, will allow interbank gold trading with Shanghai as a major gold trading center. Do you expect that to have any impact on investment demand?

RS: That is something that would increase investment demand, in that China is trying to open up its markets. It's all part of China liberalizing its financial markets.

TGR: Another report says Deutsche Bank is predicting gold will rise above $2,200/oz in 2013. Part of the reason is that it believes China eventually wants the yuan to challenge the U.S. dollar as the world's reserve currency.

To do that the Chinese Central Bank is going to need to buy more gold in a big way. Right now it's currently ranked sixth in total gold reserves, at least the reported gold reserves. Does that strike you as a credible thesis or is that something that you believe is still a long way off?

RS: I'm not sure that China would want its currency to be used as a reserve currency because that would inherently push up the value, which would in turn hurt the country's exports. I don't believe it's going to happen over the next several years. It will take a number of years for any currency to challenge the U.S. dollar.

"The PGMs definitely have some promising fundamentals."

I believe the gold that China holds right now is about 1.8% or 2% of the total reserves. As for buying gold, the Chinese Central Bank does not release that information quickly. The last time it bought gold, nothing was said about it until a few years later. It could be buying gold right now and we won't know about it until China discloses that information.

I think that central bank buying is price supportive, but I don't believe that it's something that would push gold prices sharply higher. Central banks have been doing pretty much what we expect private investors to do, which is wait for gold prices to soften before they step in as buyers.

We saw that this year in March when gold prices came down. Central banks added on a net basis 2.3 million ounces (Moz) of gold to their holdings. Central banks followed the same logic again in July, when gold prices were moving sideways at the lower end of the range for 2012, adding 2.95 Moz of gold to their holdings on a net basis. This was the largest net purchase of gold by central banks for 2012.

Bottom line, central banks are not buying gold when prices are going up. Therefore, the impact of central bank gold buying is more likely to be price supportive than price positive.

TGR: At investment conferences across North America, senior gold producers are routinely making presentations about why their companies are better investments than gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Much of their arguments are based on the idea that gold ETFs own far less gold than they claim. What's your view?

RS: The gold that ETFs own is publicly disclosed and transparent, so I'm not sure how companies can make that claim. As far as talking up investing in their companies, that's their jobthey're supposed to get investors interested in owning their stocks.

TGR: Does CPM have any analysis on ETFs versus senior gold producers? Performance-related data comparing those two?

RS: We haven't done any specific analysis. But gold ETFs basically track the gold price, so it's really a question of whether you are invested in physical gold or whether you want to invest in equities.

Equities do have the advantage of performing better for the most part over the long term. But in recent months, we've actually seen gold equities get slammed for various reasons. One of the biggest reasons is that their costs are getting out of hand.

TGR: If the gold price remains range bound near current levels, does that make gold producers more appealing?

RS: Only if gold producers are able to control their costs. If producers can prove to the markets that they can control costs, then equities would be a good investment compared to gold. Also, if gold prices remain range bound, and that prompts miners to shift their focus to higher-grade gold, that could potentially reduce costs and again make them more attractive as an investment. So it depends on how the mining companies deal with it. If they let their costs escalate and the price of gold stays sideways, their margins will get squeezed, so that will make them a bad investment.

TGR: Is there is a particular jurisdiction or jurisdictions that CPM Group sees as being more appealing for gold production?

RS: For gold production, there is a jurisdiction that is not appealing. South Africa is not very appealing at this point. The atmosphere surrounding the mining industry in South Africa at the moment is pretty complicated.

A lot of factors are at play. The country has deep-level mining, which makes it difficult for miners to control costs. You also have additional problems related to labor and infrastructure and government policies. All of those things collectively make South Africa a fairly difficult environment to mine in.

TGR: Is your near-term forecast for other precious metals like platinum, palladium and rhodium more encouraging than it is for gold and certainly for silver?

RS: The PGMs definitely have some promising fundamentals. The supply side is constrained because a lot of supply comes from South Africa. Those mines are facing the same problems as the gold mining industry in that country. So the potential is there for supply to possibly decline.

Then you have the fabrication demand side where there is little substitution for PGMs. For example, in the case of auto catalysts, any other combination of metals used would not reduce emissions at the same level of efficiency as the PGMs do. So you have expectations of heavy fabrication demand and the potential for constraint supplies that are both supportive and positive for the PGMs.

TGR: What advice can you give to precious metals investors in general that they can put to good use in 2013?

RS: It's about doing your homework. When you're looking at equities, you need to look at a number of factors besides metal prices. For example, investors need to look at the management, specific country risk, and within country risk you have government policies, infrastructure. There's also the mining grades of the deposits and the costs to get the metal out of the ground. Costs are especially important to pay attention to in the current environment where mining cash costs almost across the board are rising pretty substantially.

TGR: Are you predicting cash costs among gold miners are going to rise in 2013?

RS: We do think gold mining cash costs will continue to rise. One of the problems is the rising gold price itself. That has been encouraging miners to mine lower-grade ore, which in turn pushes cash costs up. Another problem is mining regions, such as South Africa, where all these other additional factors are pushing cash costs up. So, yes, we do think the costs for gold mining will continue to rise in 2013.

We have data going through the second quarter of this year. What we saw is a peak in the profit margins in mid-2011 when gold prices were high. What we saw in the second half of 2011 and the first half of 2012 is the slight decline in gold prices and a continued increase in the costs. So companies' profit margins got squeezed. We think this will continue if mining companies don't curb their cost increases. This is the biggest problem or threat to the gold mining industry.

TGR: What are the biggest inputs into those rising costs for miners?

RS: The biggest input cost is labor, which represents about 50% of total cash costs for gold mining. We keep hearing of strikes and shut downs and those kind of problems. That is not good for the largest component of costs, labor. Fuel, for instance, only accounts for about 8% to 9% of costs. And about the same amount for utility costs, such as electricity and water.

TGR: Were fuel costs 8% or 9% five years ago or were they a smaller percentage? It's a number in a vacuum otherwise.

RS: Fuel costs were a little bit less than 8% or 9% five years ago. Fuel costs haven't been the biggest issue for cash costs. It's labor costs. The inflation in labor costs is what's pushing up the whole cash cost curve.

TGR: Are there any parting thoughts you have for our readers?

RS: A lot of times our gold outlook comes out sounding bearish when it's not. I just want to say that we do think gold prices will stay high. We just don't think that they're going to skyrocket.

TGR: Where was CPM Group in its forecast for 2012?

RS: We had an annual average of $1,620/oz at the beginning of the year. The average price for gold so far in 2012 is about $1,670/oz. So we were lower than the average. We did do well compared to 8590% of the other analysts whose price forecasts are way, way higher.

TGR: Thanks for your insights.

Rohit Savant is a senior commodity analyst at CPM Group and joined CPM Group in 2005. Savant is the lead analyst for CPM Group's Precious Metals Long-Term Market Outlooks, Precious Metals Yearbooks and Precious Metals Advisory. These publications include in-depth analysis on gold, silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium markets. Savant provides consulting services for all of the precious metals on an ongoing basis to various hedge funds, individual traders, producers and end users.

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Article source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/theaureport/Ajgh/~3/W9EN1BrvuDA/14860

Source: http://www.ino.com/blog/2012/12/rohit-savant-expects-the-gold-bull-market-to-pause-in-2013/

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